Victor A. Bañuls, Murray Turoff, Starr Roxanne Hiltz.
Proceedings of the 9th International ISCRAM Conference – Vancouver, Canada, April 2012.
Scenarios can enhance the understanding of emergency teams about the factors which are involved in the definition of an emergency plan and how different actors participate in it. Cross-Impact Analysis aims at contributing to this goal through allowing the collaborative development of scenarios out of large event sets, and this ultimately reduces the complexity for estimating a working model. In this paper we analyze how to apply Cross-Impact Analysis for developing collaborative scenarios in Emergency Preparedness. In order to illustrate this research effort hypothetical results of a dirty bomb attack scenario exercise are presented. The purpose of this exercise is to demonstrate the ability of a group to create a working model of the scenario that may be used to examine the consequences of various assumptions about preparedness, plans, and the actions taken during the event. The method may be used as either a planning tool and/or a training tool.
Full article: http://idl.iscram.org/files/banuls/2012/78_Banuls_etal2012.pdf