Predicting the impact of multiple risks on project performance: a scenario-based approach

Victor A. Bañuls, Cristina López, Murray Turoff, Fernando Tejedor.

Project Management Journal, Vol. 48, No. 5, 95–114, 2017.

This article suggests a scenario-based approach to properly managing risks during the lifetime of a project. Our proposal aims at giving managers a structured process to predicting the impact of the occurrence of multiple risks that can affect project performance. This is a product of combining Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) mechanics, which improve the predictive capacity of existing risk analysis techniques. In order to validate their risk predictions, we compare them with a sample of real projects carried out in an engineering company. The findings show a high explanatory capacity to forecast project risk influences.

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